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Millicom Major African Mobile Operators: Future Growth Prospects   


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Company Overview

Business Strategy

Financial and Operational Performance

Recent Developments

Future Outlook

Figure 1: Revenue from the Mobile sector in Africa (2002-2004)

Figure 2: Mobile Subscribers (2002-2005)

Figure 3: Mobile Subscribers in Africa - by Geography (June 2005)

Table 1: Millicom - Mobile Operations in Africa

Company Overview

Millicom is a group of companies offering mobile services to a population coverage of 250 million people worldwide and 169 million people in Africa . It was established in 1990 and has expanded globally, offering voice, cable TV, data and value added services through partnerships and joint ventures. The company is headquartered in Luxembourg and has operations in 13 countries in Africa, Central America and South America. In Africa, its key markets are Chad, The Democratic Republic of Congo ("DRC"), Senegal, Tanzania, Ghana and Mauritius. Millicom also started operations on Rwanda in December 2009 after being awarded a license in 2008. The gross mobile subscriber base of the company worldwide was 33.9 million, with 12.2 million subscribers in Africa at the end of December 2009.

Table 1: Millicom - Mobile Operations in Africa 4Q 2009

 

Country

Network Name

Mobile subscribers

Technology

Position

Senegal

SENTELgsm

2,090,067

GSM 900

2 of 3

Tanzania

Mobitel

3,978,457

GSM 900/1800

 2 of 7

Ghana

Mobitel

3,094,176

GSM 900

2 of 5

Mauritius

Emtel

437,428

GSM 900/3G2100

2 of 3

Chad

Millicom Chad

1,017,15

GSM 900

2 of 2

“DRC” (i)

Oasis

1,511,105

GSM 1800

1 of 5

Rwanda

Tigo Rwanda SA

74,785

GSM 900/1800

3 of 3

 (i) The Democratic Republic of Congo - Kinshasa/Bas region only

Source: Company Reports

Business Strategy

Millicom aims to achieve consistent growth in order to obtain a number one or two position in each of their African regions by employing the following three strategies:

Establishing the brand

Millicom's brand development in Africa is still at a relatively early stage, with Tigo not yet as established as it is in Latin America. However, by investing in brand visibility, trade marketing strategies and direct saleforces the company has seen considerable market share growth over the last 12 months.

In Ghana, where the brand is well known, the company now has a dedicated trade marketing function whose role is to plan visibility in the market with the assistance of the trade marketing team and ensure the deployment of an effective budget. In it's younger markets, such as Chad and the DRC, the company is still focused on increasing basic visibility. Examples of this are the painting of over 2,000 square metres of walls with the Tigo logo in Chad, and sponsoring taxis in the capital city. And in the DRC, the company deployed a further 3,000 point of sale tables and 5,000 parasols to increase brand visibility.

DMS is also at quite different stages of implementation, with Chad and the DRC making their first deployments in their respective capital city areas during 2009. In Tanzania, the focus has been on training employees in the use of DMS to maximize its value to the business. In Ghana it has been used highly effectively to promote ePIN penetration.

Product innovation

With the majority of demand in its African division still for voice and SMS services, Millicom has been seeking opportunities for innovation in the way its services are packaged and branded. While most of its African businesses have developed targeted bundles that stimulate both ARPU and usage, such as discounted calls to one or two other Tigo numbers in Ghana the DRC and Senegal, a range of unique products have been devised to increase customer numbers. Examples include the Xtreme SMS package offered to its customers in Tanzania and Ring Back Tone services which have proved hugely successful in both Tanzania and Chad. In Tanzania, the company pioneered RBT Star Copy to make it easy to copy tunes and subscribe to RBT.Customers. The tunes are copied simply by pressing the star key on their keypads when they hear a Ring Back Tone they like. RBT Star Copy has also acted as a highly effective form of viral marketing for the company.

Improving operations strategy

Millicom is making considerable improvements to its operations strategy in Africa. As a region where coverage remains focussed on predominantly urban areas, capex for 2009 was 51 percent of revenues. However, when it made the decision to outsource passive infrastructure in Africa by sharing tower networks with operators that cover similar regions, Millicom was responding to the difficult economic climate while allowing the business to focus on its sales, marketing, distribution, service innovation and customer care strategies. This decision was put into practise in January 2010 when the company signed its first tower agreement in Ghana and sold approximately 750 towers to Helios Towers Ghana.

Alternative power solutions are another focus for the company's African division, and by introducing LPG, deep cycle batteries and solar energy it is making cost effective steps towards having a more environmentally friendly presence in the region.

Financial and Operational Performance

Revenue

The revenue of the company from its worldwide operations, for the financial year ending 2009, was USD 3.73 billion. Customer growth was 22 percent, with 6.2 million new customers in the year taking its total base to 33.9 million. Furthermore, group revenues were up 7 per cent to USD 3.373 million (2008: USD 3.151 million), with an underlying constant currency revenue growth of 10 per cent.

Performance in Africa

The company's revenues from African operations in 2009 amounted to USD 782 million, registering a 10 percent increase. Chad, the DRC and Tanzania proved to be the highest growth operations. The ARPU, at USD 6.4, is lower than for the rest of the group, reflecting the lower GDP per capita of these markets. Customer numbers were up 35 percent year-on-year to 12.2 million.

Profitability

In terms of profitability, the EBITDA margin of the operator in Africa improved 3.1 percentage points year-on-year to 36.4 percent.

Figure 1: Revenue from the Mobile sector in Africa (2002-2004)


Source: Source: Company Reports

Capital Expenditure

The company incurred a capex of USD 398 million on its African mobile operations in the financial year 2009. Although this was down 34 percent year-on-year and stood at 51 percent of revenues, the company continue to invest heavily in Africa. It reports that, even with outflows at the OFCF level of USD 64 million, it was cash flow positive in the fourth quarter of 2009

Operating KPIs

Millicom's total proportionate number of mobile subscribers in Africa at the end of December 2009 was 12,203,177. See below chart for further information on Millicom's operations in Africa.

Figure 2 shows the total proportionate mobile subscribers of Millicom in Africa from 2002 to end June 2005. Figure 3 depicts the break-up, by geography, of gross mobile subscribers, as at 30th June 2005.

Figure 2: Mobile Subscribers (2002-2005)


Source: Source: Company Reports
(Details of ARPU and Churn Rate were not available from the operator)

Figure 3: Mobile Subscribers in Africa - by Geography (June 2005)


Ownership Structure

As on 31st December 2009, Kinnevik, a Swedish holding company, owned a 34.82 percent stake in Millicom International Cellular S.A.

Recent Developments

The following are some recent developments for Millicom: The following are some recent developments for Millicom:

> Millicom completed a buyout of its partners MIC Tanzania ltd and Millicom Sierra Leone ltd in February 2006. It also agreed to cancel a call option on equity interest in Millicom Ghana Ltd.

> Millicom ceased operating in Sierra Leone as Tigo when it sold its assets to Africell Holding SAL in July 2008.

> In December 2009 Millicom launched mobile operations in Rwanda having been awarded its license in December 2008. The service launched with 50 per cent population coverage. Additionally, the company deployed 3G infrastructure in Kigali, the capital of Rwanda as well as other key urban regions.

> Outsourcing has become a key focus for the company, particularly tower sharing with networks that cover the same customer base and at the end of 2009 the company signed it's first tower sharing agreement in Ghana.

> In Ghana, Millicom introduced Default APN services. These work on insertion of a Tigo SIM card into a phone, and enable the customer to access the internet via GPRS on the Tigo network In 2009, daily usage of GPRS in Ghana increased from 10,000 to 75,000 customers.

> In March 2009 Millicom reached agreement on the purchase of the remaining 12.5% in its joint venture in Chad. This business had 541,000 subscribers at the end of 2008 and is today the number two operator in Chad with a 45 percent market share in a country with a mobile penetration of only 12 percent but a population of 10 million.

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Future Outlook

Millicom's market share growth within its African division has grown significantly with customer numbers up 35 percent year-on-year to 12.2 million in the financial year 2009. With average voice penetration in its African markets still under 25 percent, the company believes that there are attractive long term growth opportunities.

The EBITDA margin in Africa improved 3.1 percentage points year-on-year to 36.4 percent and the company hopes to raise its African EBITDA margin to the Group average over the next two years, as penetration increases and they continue to grow in their market share.The future outlook for the company's main markets of operations in Africa is as follows:

Senegal
An important market for Millicom, with an addition of 194,000 customers in the first quarter of 2009, despite the launch of a new MVNO in late 2009 which saw Tigo lose some low ARPU customers. However, the eruption of a dispute with the government over the validity of its GSM license in 2008 has caused the company to limit their level of investment until an agreement is reached.

Ghana
One of the weaker economies being served by Millicom's Africa operations, Ghana has showed lower ARPUs and steadier penetration growth. Additionally the company has suffered from significant currency depreciation in the region. In 2009, direct activities account for 44 percent of all airtime sales, up from 15% in the financial year ending 2008. As a country where Millicom's brand is well known, the company wants to improve its dedicated trade marketing function in the future.

Mauritius
The market in Mauritius has doubled since 2006 with the total number of customers at the end of 2009 at 437,428. This is a year on year increase of four percent. Updates have been made with the installation of a 137 km underground cable in 2009 to improve future capacity for ICT infrastructure.

Chad
Chad showed strong year-on-year subscriber growth at 67 percent. Along with the DRC and Tanzania, Chad was one of Millicom's highest growth operations. ARPU, at USD 6.4, is lower than for the rest of the Group, reflecting the lower GDP per capita of these markets. Having recently introduced EDGE data modems in Chad the company is confident that it will see considerable growth within its internet market.

Tanzania
Tanzania is one of Millicom's best performing markets in terms of net subscriber additions which grew by 93 percent year-on-year, adding 212,000 subscribers in the first quarter of 2009.

During 2009, the company witnessed an amendment to the way VAT and excise duties are calculated in Tanzania, with these charges now being levied on gross airtime revenues rather than the wholesale value billed to distributors.

DRC
One of Millicom's younger markets, the DRC saw its customer base grow rapidly by 92 percent year-on-year adding 97,000 subscribers in the first quarter of 2009 and passing the one million mark.Despite total customer numbers being up 44 percent at the end of 2009, the company's brand is still relatively unknown, and their main focus is now on increasing their brand visability.

Rwanda
Millicom launched its services in Rwanda at the beginning of December 2009 and, by the end of the year, it had attracted some 75 thousand customers. As the company's newest operation, Rwanda is a country that is considered to have great future market potential due to its progressive government and the fact that it's served by only two other networks with relatively low penetration.

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